{"id":3723,"date":"2025-11-12T12:00:30","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T13:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beijingcareer.com\/?p=3723"},"modified":"2025-11-12T18:22:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T18:22:38","slug":"future-california-wildfire-losses-likely-to-exceed-historical-data-willis-re","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beijingcareer.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/12\/future-california-wildfire-losses-likely-to-exceed-historical-data-willis-re\/","title":{"rendered":"Future California wildfire losses likely to exceed historical data: Willis Re"},"content":{"rendered":"

Future wildfire losses in California are likely to exceed what recent fire footprints suggest, challenging how the re\/insurance industry assesses and prices risk, Daniel Bannister, from Willis Research Network, states in a recent analysis.<\/p>\n

\"\"Two decades of intense fire activity has largely spared the state\u2019s most high-value, highly exposed areas, but the January 2025 Los Angeles fires<\/a> showed just how impactful these events can be.<\/p>\n

The $40 billion in insured losses from the Los Angeles event – considered the largest wildfire bill in history – illustrate how today\u2019s underlying conditions can translate latent exposure into large losses,<\/a> notes Willis Re.<\/p>\n

Occurring in mid-winter when fire spread was historically limited, the fire burned through some of the world\u2019s most valuable wildland-urban interface (WUI), proving that losses of this scale are now a \u201ccredible outcome\u201d rather than an extreme rarity.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat makes this event significant for re\/insurers<\/a> is not simply that such a loss occurred, but what it implies about the unburned WUI more broadly: the potential for future loss is much larger than recent fire footprints suggest,\u201d Bannister notes.<\/p>\n

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Adding: \u201cIf events of this scale now sit within the range of credible outcomes, wildfire needs to be considered a core contributor to portfolio volatility, rather than an infrequent or marginal loss source.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although California has seen one in six acres burn since 2000, most of this fire activity has been concentrated in sparsely populated wildland areas.<\/p>\n

The report highlights that the high-value WUI – where residential areas meet wildlands – has experienced relatively little fire, with less than 4% burning in the last ten years.<\/p>\n

This means that the area most susceptible to major losses has yet to experience a large-scale fire under current conditions.<\/p>\n

Bannister emphasises that historical experience alone is no longer a reliable guide. To understand today\u2019s wildfire loss potential, three interacting forces must be considered:<\/p>\n